Analisis Alasan Jokowi Pilih Ma'ruf Amin (MA) Sebagai Wakil Presiden Maju ke Pilpres 2019

pilpres 2019 hanya akan jadi ajang pemungutan suara, tak lebih dari itu
politician pilpres2019 Jokowi presidenri maa'ruf amin
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Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:18 WIB
<#Pilpres2019 THREAD> I have two sets of views on the presidential/vp nomination: as an analyst and a voter. As an analyst, I think JKW choosing MA made perfect sense, even if it shows his ultimate "powerful but weak" paradox. There are at least 6 possible benefits:
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:18 WIB
1) MA boosts JKW's religious credentials to the point of almost taking out religious mobilization away for Prabowo's camp. If the latter had wanted to use the "Ahok playbook", it would look ridiculous when one of the chief symbols of that playbook is on the other side.
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:19 WIB
2) MA reduces the chances of spoilers and "roving bandits" (to use Mancur Olson's term) to attack JKW. These would be the fringe elements who pragmatically used the mix of extreme nationalism and radical conservatism as a tool for hire (tho' some might quietly join the network)
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:19 WIB
3) MA effectively keep JKW's Islamic coalition (eg PPP, PKB, and large NU constituents) intact. Despite grumblings from some that they would walk away if JKW didn't choose their preferred candidates, they cannot easily say now that JKW "doesn't care about NU".
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:19 WIB
If intra-coalition cohesion is essential moving award, then yes, JKW is right: MA does solidify the religious-nationalist axis. Whether the axis would have been stronger with somebody like MMD is a question mark and depends on your reading of socio-pol trends crucial for 2019
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:19 WIB
4) if growth in soc/pol piety is correct (most surveys suggest it is), then having MA as your running mate solidifies your position across a whole swath of voters who believe they can be both a nationalist/Pancasila but also a staunch defender of piety and Islam.
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:19 WIB
The efforts to portray these two as mutually exclusive may be fruitless. JKW could potentially expand his voter base beyond the core that put him into office in 2014. Also, MA's social conservatism appeals to many non-Muslim Indonesians worried with the country's "liberal trends"
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:20 WIB
5) as others noted, MA's appeal may not be "public popularity" but he is one of the most powerful institutionalist players where Islamic politics and state power meets. MA been doing this for a long time.
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:20 WIB
His ability to mobilize the institutional network while safeguarding the public face of the campaign would be invaluable. In other words, public popularity may not be MA's main appeal when the expectation is that JKW remains "popular"
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:20 WIB
6) despite his power, MA won't be a serious Pres cand in 2024. This is perhaps one of the reasons why JKW's coalition partners looking ahead is willing to live with MA. Sure, MA will be a kingmaker along the way to 2024 (where Anies, AHY, and Uno will surely compete again).
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:20 WIB
But he won't be the "next JKW", leaving the coalition parties the space and opportunity to solidify their positions and candidates in the next 5 years as an incumbent (assuming JKW wins and that parties look at ways to prolong their power beyond the current seat of power).
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:20 WIB
I can understand all these political "advantages" as an analyst. Winning at all cost and all that. But as a voter, it's very hard to accept JKW's choice. I expected JKW to also value the country's pluralist and tolerant foundation, beyond providing infrastructure and welfare.
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:21 WIB
I expected JKW to consider #Pilpres2019 as about speaking up for the voiceless and not for the powerful and the bullies. About the willingness to take political risks to defend a greater set of principles beyond today's win/lose column.
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:21 WIB
Choosing a running mate with a particularly controversial track record on these principles, at best, is hard to swallow. If MA's track record as a behind-the-door player was already substantial and concerning, what happens if he has the full power of the VP office?
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:21 WIB
What happens if he becomes one of most powerful post-Suharto VPs? What happens to the cabinet and JKW's policies if MA also runs the show? What happens in 2024 if JKW "takes a pass" on the difficult issues of pluralism and tolerance?
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:21 WIB
In any case, while "shifting to the right" may have been the seemingly "winning strategy", the polarization and the erosion of the country's pluralist foundation will be harder to recover from. After all, can any one person/group truly control the power of identity politics?
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:21 WIB
(also, would political analysts be able to clearly say who the "illiberal candidates" are?) I know my views on this are a minority. After all, most Indonesians would still choose JKW regardless of VP choice, if for no other reason than he is "better than Prabowo".
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:22 WIB
Bottom line, I once said that there's no such thing as a flawless, perfect savior in politics when Anies egregiously won Jakarta. JKW's seems to reiterated this point: he is nothing more than a politician. To expect more out of him would be unrealistic and unwise
Evan A. Laksmana @EvanLaksmana 10/08/2018 06:30:22 WIB
In any case, as a friend once said of the upcoming #Pilpres2019 with these particular pairs: it's like Alien vs. Predator, whoever wins we lose. <END DEPRESSIVE RAMBLE>
Pratiwi Sasotya @sasotya 10/08/2018 06:58:28 WIB
@EvanLaksmana Good morning, I slept feeling so unsettled but is heartened to know I am not alone in my views on this. May we rise from this disappointment understanding ‘it is just politics’ better.
Irwan @is7988 10/08/2018 07:11:32 WIB
@EvanLaksmana Don't forget the x factor: sandi uno. He's much much smarter and resourceful than the public know (arguably purposely). This is still a race.
Pratiwi Sasotya @sasotya 10/08/2018 07:31:16 WIB
@is7988 @EvanLaksmana i thought of this too, if anything, sandi is a strategic opportunist. He is not dumb. Intrigued to see how this will roll.
Wilz The Great @wilzz13 10/08/2018 07:31:45 WIB
@EvanLaksmana Ever think of a "third candidate" ? Will PDemokrat see this chance??
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